Original Summary

Every third post in here is a notion clone or an AI wrapper charging $19 a month for a prompt someone wrote on a Tuesday. Rocket emoji, waitlist, the whole thing. I've been around long enough to know what this post looks like from the outside, so let me try and get ahead of it. Mine is a trading tool. You upload your backtest, the actual list of trades, and it tells you whether the result is real or whether you tried 200 versions and kept the luckiest one. That's the most common way backtests lie, and there's a solid body of research on it, mostly Bailey and López de Prado, that almost nobody outside hedge funds actually applies to their own work. Yes I used Claude to build it, obviously. But everything it wrote got checked against the papers. There's a test file that reproduces the worked examples from two of them to six decimals. I still found a units bug in my deflated Sharpe implementation months later, one that made it 2.6x too harsh at 1000 trades and accidentally correct around 150, which is where I'd been testing it the whole time. You only catch that by checking against a known answer. You don't catch it by asking the model if it looks right, because it'll tell you it looks great. Before someone asks whether I checked what already exists, I did. There are products out there but none that capture the whole picture. There's a free calculator that does one of the eight tests if you type your numbers in by hand, a desktop backtester with it built in but only for strategies written in its own scripting language, and a TradingView indicator that runs one test on a chart. Nobody takes an export from any platform and runs the whole battery. The business case is bad on purpose, for most uploads the honest answer is you don't have enough trades yet. Nobody wants to hear that and nobody wants to pay for it. There's also a page listing what the tool can't see, so people don't trust it more than they should. In my thinking that's the best way to stop people losing money, instead of guaranteeing someone they're about to be a millionaire. The case studies on the site are my own strategies failing. One is a broker's server clock that quietly stopped following daylight saving, so half of ten years of my trades happened an hour off from where my rules thought they did, I included my failures to show the calibration and effort and failure that took me to make this product to actually try and help people. There's six accounts in the database and every one of them is mine. So I might just be the guy that one rant post was about, but this is my honest attempt at explaining what I actually made without the slop: overfitcheck.com   submitted by   /u/Aggressive_Visit_164 [link]   [comments]

  • 情报分类：商业与市场研究
  • 分类依据：内容涉及商业、投资或市场动态
  • 信息来源：Reddit · SideProject
  • 发布时间：2026/9/23 06:17:55