Original Summary

Every earnings season the same argument happens. One side says the numbers were a blowout, the other says it was priced in. Same report, opposite conclusions. I wanted to know which side is usually right, so I pulled 14,531 quarters across 1,272 US stocks and sorted them by how much the company beat by. Beat by Fell the next day Median move missed 62% -1.42% 0-3% 54% -0.36% 3-5% 50% +0.01% 5-10% 44% +0.58% 10-25% 40% +1.15% 25%+ 37% +2.07% A beat under 3% goes down more often than up. It sits closer to a miss than to a real beat, and the headline still says "beat." Monotonic across every band, which I didn't expect. Apple is the clearest case. 12 straight quarters of beating estimates, median beat 4.0%, stock fell after 8 of them. The thing I expected to find isn't there, though. I assumed a stock's past reactions would say something about the next one. They don't. After a beat that sold off, the next beat sold off 43.8% of the time. After a beat that rallied, 44.8%. That's nothing. So the history tells you how a stock has behaved, not what it's going to do. I started this to check my own holdings and it turned into a site: https://afterns.com/en Report dates, beat size, guidance, what came up on the call, and the reaction for each of the last ~12 quarters. Free, no account needed. There's a calendar you can subscribe to as well, so the dates land in your own calendar: https://afterns.com/en/calendar What's a piece of investing advice you'd want checked against the data? If it turns out to be nothing, I'll post that it was nothing.   submitted by   /u/Successful-Status451 [link]   [comments]

  • 情报分类：商业与市场研究
  • 分类依据：内容涉及商业、投资或市场动态
  • 信息来源：Reddit · SideProject
  • 发布时间：2026/9/15 02:56:49