Original Summary

Four months on this. Weekly stock contest, $25 a seat, $100k fake money, you pick Monday and it's locked till Friday. Top eighth of the field gets paid. Last weekend I wrote a sim to make a nice odds chart for the site. 1,024 fake players all picking at random, 8,000 rounds. The random guys who went all-in on one stock got paid 29.7% of the time. Supposed to be 12.5%. Thirty-stock portfolios got paid 0.9%. These players are random number generators. They know nothing. And "put it all on one" still beat the field by almost 2.5x. I did not put that chart on the site. Then I ran it again with half the players given a real edge, because I wanted to know if winning actually tells you anything. One-stock winners were only 1.2x more likely to be skilled than random. Basically nothing. Thirty stocks: 3.3x. So the thing that makes you more likely to win is also the thing that makes winning tell you almost nothing. great I'm still deciding what changes before round one. It’s called Kelly Markets if anyone wants to see the actual thing: kellymarkets.com Anyone who plays fantasy, poker, prediction markets, whatever: Is "set it Monday and watch it for five days" actually fun? Or does not being able to touch anything after Monday make it boring as hell?   submitted by   /u/Plastic-Crab-1761 [link]   [comments]

  • 情报分类：商业与市场研究
  • 分类依据：内容涉及商业、投资或市场动态
  • 信息来源：Reddit · SideProject
  • 发布时间：2026/9/17 05:41:55