- SignalDesk2小时前
Original Summary
There was a lot of debate about whether the 3 interstellar objects found might not be natural. Most of it cherry-picked a few oddities and claimed decisively, for or against. I don't have a strong opinion, and don't trust my eye for coincidence or to spot astrology-like "planetary alignment", so I simulated millions of random paths through the solar system and counted how many came closer than the 3 known objects, either to the planets or to or from nearby stars.<p>1I and 2I look like chance. Loeb et al. put 3I's planetary passes at 1 in 20,000. Scored against all eight planets and random arrivals of its speed, it's about 1 in 300. I don't know how much more easily surveys spot objects along the ecliptic, which would explain some of 3I's coincidence.<p>I welcome forking the project and adjusting the assumptions I made, like a Bracewell or von Neumann probe would take a traveling salesman path, or that it would need to fly near multiple planets.
- 情报分类：商业与市场研究
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- 信息来源：Hacker News 新项目
- 发布时间：2026/10/15 04:36:19
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