Original Summary

Figuring out what to do with my retirement investments has been one hell of a rabbit hole. There are so many tools out there that let you drill into all sorts of data but nothing that helps you make a decision. Mainstream investment books and index-investing philosophy are basically "just invest in US equities, Intl equities, and bonds". At the same time, figuring out how that would actually work in typical Roth IRA, 401k, and taxable brokerage accounts in terms of funding and rebalancing requires a financial advisor for personalized advice - and honestly I haven't found one who is either able or willing to do this since apparently that's a fund manager's job (and they charge 1% of your assets). Sure, I asked Claude to draft up a plan but relying on its math to be right on something like this is probably a bad idea. So I started researching and building my own. I'm trying to answer the question: If I invest $50k/yr for 30 years, will I have enough to withdraw 4% and net $120k/yr? Given the following assumptions: 30 years to invest Initial contribution amount: 50k (keeping this in real terms, growing nominally per year) Inflation: 3% Starting portfolio Roth: 98k VTI 401k: 75,340 FXAIX; 560 FSPSX; 32,100 VBTLX Taxable: 115k FTIHX; 0 VTEB (for rebalancing into muni bonds when the 401k can't) Nominal growth rates (I need to confirm these) VTI, FXAIX, FTIHX, FSPSX: 8% VBTLX, VTEB: 3.3% Target allocations Domestic: 54% Intl: 36% Bonds: 10% -> 40% increasing by 1% per year, but keeping domestic/intl at 60/40 Roth contribution limits start at 7k but grow in increments of 500 based on compounding inflation 401k contribution limits start at 24.5 but grow in increments of 1,000 based on compounding inflation The answer has 2 parts: A clear yes/no with probabilities. What exactly do I do at each funding/rebalancing event? So far I have a flat growth rate model that says I'll be just shy of the $4M goal, and I'm working on a rigorous simulator that will tell me how likely that scenario is. Then I can tweak the portfolio, likely by removing bonds so early in the investment life, so that I can bring that probability up. Finally, generate a plan that estimates what I'll do next month through 30 years from now and just re-run the entire simulation using actuals and understand how on/off track I am. The tool will be something that's: Transparent with assumptions: A specific, popular portfolio to optimize gains and risk Confident in estimates: Rigorous simulation to answer "how likely is this?" Leverages common investment accounts for W2 earners: Roth IRA, 401k, Taxable Prescriptive: Produces a step-by-step plan that can be followed, and updated, during each funding and rebalancing event as real market conditions unfold My target avatar is someone like me: Has a simple question: How much do I need to save to cover my expenses in retirement and how do I do that, specifically? Wants simple, transparent algori

中文概览

中文标题： 一个简单、规范化的退休投资管理工具？

用户探讨如何管理退休投资，认为现有工具只展示数据不帮决策；打算自建工具，用模拟回答每年投5万、30年后能否足够提4%并净得12万/年，并生成各缴款与再平衡步骤。

  • 情报分类：综合情报
  • 分类依据：个人退休投资工具设想，未明确开源项目或技术学习，归为综合情报
  • 信息来源：Reddit · SideProject
  • 发布时间：2026/9/13 14:23:48