Original Summary

The two mainstream arguments are the extremes, because that&#x27;s how our modern society rolls. It&#x27;s either that there is an AI bubble that will crash, or that a rogue ASI will kill us all.<p>What about the third possibility, what if Sonnet 3.5 -&gt; Opus 4.5 -&gt; 5.5 just keeps going over the next few years? Based on my experience, that will eat all software, and once lab researchers focus on fields other than software, they will eat those nearly as quickly.<p>This feels like the real contrarian position in 2026. What does the US economy, which is &gt;70% service-based, look like in the next 3 to 5 years if this happens?<p>Does a couple labs having control of that percentage of the GDP make an economy? What if it happens too quickly? Is this the real reason as to why they are talking about &quot;pacing the frontier&quot; all of a sudden?

  • 情报分类：技术学习与提效
  • 分类依据：内容涉及技术、AI、软件工具或工程实践
  • 信息来源：Hacker News 新项目
  • 发布时间：2026/10/9 21:18:05